As Verizon nears the end of its initial $23 billion rollout of FiOS, it's seeming likely that they're going to focus more on marketing what they've already built rather than expanding their fiber footprint further.
While I'm admittedly disappointed that they're not going to continue investing in extending FiOS to all their customers, I can understand the business rationale behind this decision. Also I realize that just because they're slowing now doesn't mean they won't pick back up at a later date.
But even still, this shift away from deployment raises some important questions related to America's national broadband policy.
First of all, as an advocate of full fiber networks, I'm more than a little concerned about what's going to happen to the growth of full fiber connections in the US with Verizon no longer deploying. On the one hand they're going to be focusing more on marketing, which should help significantly increase the number of people using fiber. But on the other, a huge percentage of fiber's growth has been attributed to Verizon's efforts. So while fiber deployments have been on a steady upward swing over the past few years, are we going to look back at 2010 as the year that the pace of fiber deployment declined?
Considering the fact that the rest of the world is ramping up in a big way, the fact that our fiber growth may actually slow now that Verizon's not investing as heavily is terrifying.
And that brings us to the second major point. I've heard buzz in DC that many policymakers have the impression that Verizon's investment in FiOS (and to a lesser degree AT&T;'s investment in U-Verse, and the cablecos in DOCSIS 3.0) is a sign that the broadband market's working and that significant government intervention is not needed to make sure that next generation broadband networks are getting deployed.
But what happens to that political equation when you take out Verizon as a major investor? If they're no longer putting billions into fiber, and assuming no one else steps up to fill that void, then how can we say that our country's headed in the right direction?
The fact that we might be facing a decline in the growth of fiber deployment should stop any government official who cares about America's international standing in the digital economy in their tracks. We need to be seeing exponentially greater growth, not less!
And there's another trend here that policymakers can't ignore, namely that if we rely solely on the market to drive broadband deployment then we're going to be creating a nation of haves and have nots.
Just look at Verizon. They've basically only deployed FiOS to the most economically attractive areas. They haven't gone to many poor neighborhoods, inner cities, or rural communities. And even more troubling is that most cities they've gone into they've just built out the more well-off areas while ignoring the poorer neighborhoods.
Now again, I don't necessarily blame Verizon for doing this. They've got finite resources, and their job is to maximize profit, so it makes sense that they'd focus their investment on the areas with the greatest chance at realizing the largest returns.
But from a broadband policy perspective, I think we'd be remiss to ignore the fact that the market alone does not work if the goal is to bring world-class broadband to all Americans.
I hope this message makes it through to our policymakers as too often they seem ready to accept the notion that the market alone can solve all of our problems, but America's leading next-generation broadband deployer has proven that that's not the case.
I also hope this message makes it to many of my fellow fiber believers as I see this moment as a call to action for the rest of us. To some degree we've been able to hide behind Verizon's push, to get credit for progress being made even though that progress was largely attributable to one company.
The time has come for those of us ready, willing, and able to be deploying fiber in a big way to start doing it. Not only is the opportunity unlimited from a business perspective to capture markets with truly next-generation broadband, but our country needs us to step up and tackle this challenge. We can no longer count on one big corporation to push the ball forward on achieving America's full fiber future. It's up to us to make it happen.